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> working conditions and wages have pretty consistently improved over the past 200 years

Really depends on the group of people you are including. In the US the middle class has been eviscerated to the point where raising a family on a single income is not a realistic goal for most people.



>to the point where raising a family on a single income is not a realistic goal for most people.

Was this ever true? During the 1950s, (the perceived heyday of American middle class wealth) the female labor force participation rate was 35%[1], which was close half of the male labor force participation rate.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001


1) Based on your numbers, 65% of women were not working at that time.

2) That 35% number was likely even lower for married women.

3) Racism was still a systemic problem and was bad. Black men were excluded from the GI bill for example.

4) In spite of that, the median American household needed only 2x their salary to buy the median house. That number is 5x today, and after taxes the ratios are 2.2x then vs 6x today, when two adults are often working rather than one.

5) In short, Americans are working much harder today.


>4) In spite of that, the median American household needed only 2x their salary to buy the median house. That number is 5x today, and after taxes the ratios are 2.2x then vs 6x today, when two adults are often working rather than one.

Sources for these numbers? Also, housing is only a fraction of your costs.



That house was probably less than 2/5th of a modern house

You can get a 500sqft in podunk small town for quite cheap.

They weren't living in modern glass skyscrapers.


Compare the median house in 1950 with one today.


It’s not hard to do. A lot of them are for sale today and will sell over asking, no contingencies.


A housing development nearby my home was built in the early 1960s (I think). If you look closely at the homes, they are all of two designs, made into four by mirror images.

But it's pretty clear that over time the homes were remodeled, gut remodeled, extended, garages added, and so on, so they are significantly improved over the original. I've been in a couple, and the hallways are pretty narrow and everything is very cheaply built.

If you want to see what they were like originally, see the old Bob Hope movie "Bachelor in Paradise", filmed at a just-built suburban community.


"Narrow and cheaply built" isn't enough to make houses affordable in an age where crack dens with busted utilities go for over a million dollars. The ability of material to become cheap is capped far below the ability of location to become expensive.


google sez: "The median home sale price in Seattle is approximately $853,000 to $879,000, depending on the specific neighborhood mix and recent monthly data. Listing prices sit slightly lower around $750,000 to $775,000, placing Seattle among the highest-priced major metropolitan housing markets in the United States."

I assume a crack den with busted utilities would go for less.

I've lived in this area my adult life. Pretty much all the open spaces and lots have been infilled with houses over time. Prices go down the further away from the business core. Being within commuting distance to Microsoft comes with a big boost in price.


That's my entire point: the affordability problems stem from ponzi gatekeeping of jobs, not from the youth having expensive material taste.


Have people's standards for what a house constitutes gone up, or are affordable options that people would be very willing to buy less available now?


Probably both. Due to zoning in almost all American cities it is now illegal to build houses that are as small as in the post war period.


Houses are much bigger today.


Because of complete NIMBY victory, not because the youth are greedy. YIMBY is the way.


Maybe partly. But developers make more money building the biggest houses they can sell. So that's what they build.


True, YIMBY can only do so much. The market serves wealth-weighted people not people-weighted people, so when inequality cooks to the point that the whims of the wealthy outweigh the needs of the poor, the latter gets the boot when the two are in conflict.


The reason the 'middle class' is smaller is because more families have become "upper middle class". All the data shows this.

You can argue that housing is too much or that inflation hasn't benefited the right things, but to say that the middle class is shrining just doesn't match reality.


“Upper middle class” has nothing to do with it.

In 1950, the median household could buy a house with 2 years of income. That is, 50% of households could do this.

Today, the median house costs $400k. Only the top 12-14% of households make 200k per year.

So proportionally, the % of households that have the same buying power as a median 1950s household has shrunk roughly 4x.


Those do not measure the same thing.


Correct. Housing measures the right thing and CPI measures the wrong thing.


Can you be more specific?


The only way one can claim that the middle class isn’t shrinking is to have a floating definition of the middle class.

If you lock it in any way to something like “home ownership and simple vacations once a year” (which was absolutely possible in the 90s), it has plummeted.


I always mention this in these discussions:

https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-every...

It's housing prices.


The data that deflate with CPI? The metric notorious for laundering forced substitution into voluntary substitution? The American Dream is to Owner's Imputed Rent a house?

I love BLS, they do a lot of thankless work very well, but if you give someone else control of the inflation basket you are letting them pick any slope for these graphs that they want. Don't do that. It's the economic equivalent of handing your passport to an employer, talking about your net worth in public, or signing a blank check. Just don't. Yeah, we're all busy, you probably don't have time to construct a basket more sophisticated than "gold" or "housing" -- but even though those both have big problems, they still aren't as bad long-term as CPI. Or maybe you disagree and think the CPI basket and hedonic adjustment methodology compounds better for your purposes, but if so you should be able to roughly account for the dramatic difference and articulate why.




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