Needlessly patriotic and confrontational.

I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market?

And iPhones, not really. But you can bet your ass that every business purchasing software in Europe is at least considering the geopolitical risks of buying American, and thinking of alternatives. Doesn't mean they'll all stop buying American software any time soon, but the shift has already started.

> I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market?

You presume that every single product they sell will be restricted: this is unrealistic. The rest of the world can have the gimped models, and as so long as they're better than other offerings, the revenue will flow - which is exactly what happens with countless other dual-use goods.

Except the frontier models are the only reason to use them. Why would they use GPT-export when they can use the latest GLM or Kimi?

It's probably too late, but my understanding is that those Chinese models would be nowhere near as good as they are currently if they weren't trained on billions of Claude/GPT tokens. Anthropic and OpenAI are still able to produce models that lead in every category but the separation between their models and open weights shrunk because of the free for all access.

I'm not presuming, I flat out said: nobody sane would trust them with their business. They've been shown as unreliable suppliers due to arbitrary decisions by the White House. Nobody would want for their business automation processes to stop working because someone woke up pissy and banned the model they were using.

At this point, for Europe, it might not be such a bad idea to make a deal with China and give them full access to ASML again. And maybe, just maybe, review Intel's access to ASML?

Yep, we all can play tit for tat.