The issue is not prediction, is expectation. The market moves on expected outcomes, not on reality. The reality may change down the road, but the expectation is to go down a lot more.
Incorrect, the market moves on expectation, anyone that has traded the market knows this. If expectations are terrible, the market will tumble, it doesn't matter what is happening right now.
I am only talking about one thing - the market going up or down. That’s the entire reality. Expectations contribute to that, making them part of reality.
Forecasting that the market will drop 60% has a way of making that an expectation if enough people believe it, and then it happens, and the prediction comes true.
