I couldn't have wished for a more exciting opening to this game. Watson just shot right off into the lead like there was no tomorrow, jetting ahead by thousands! I was blown away. Then he slowly started to crumble a bit and his answers were faulty more and more. But his strategy is amazing! He hops from category to category, while most humans pick a category and stick with it. I wonder if IBM has him do that purely because it might throw the humans off a bit. Totally awesome. I can't wait for tonight's show!
> He hops from category to category, while most humans pick a category and stick with it.
Ken Jennings himself did that for the express reason of throwing off his opponents. As the category selector he would have an extra couple seconds to start thinking in that direction. Totally fair game for Watson to do too.
I agree that Watson started with a higher value clue in order to look for the Daily Double. Statistically the fourth row has the highest concentration of them. DDs are valuable not just because of the opportunity to double up or bet more than the clue's actual value, but also because you get exclusive access to the question without buzzer competition.
As for Watson's early lead, that happened because the clues chosen early happened to be the types of questions it could answer quickly and reliably. Computers are great at stuff like 4-letter words and searching Beatles song lyrics. Computers are less great at clues where the hint drives the answer, like the one about "don't name Voldemort" or the "Final" category where the hint is in the category name. It just so happened that those harder clues for Watson came after the easier clues.
A while back, before the game, I wrote to Ken about one of the videos IBM made about Watson. In it, someone said that Watson "learns" the category. The best strategy for humans, then, is to start at the highest value questions.
When Ken jumped into a category, notice that he started at the highest values.
He hops from category to category, while most humans pick a category and stick with it.
I noticed the same thing, but I really hoped it was unintentional. It doesn't feel like it's a fair fight otherwise, since it means he's exploiting a weakness intrinsic to his competitors. The whole point of this competition is to show that a computer can compete and win at a human level. If it weren't, then why force him to physically push a button to ring in? If Watson is intentionally jumping categories to confuse humans, then it sort of feels like he's cheating a bit.
As I write this, I realize a lot of this comment is motivated by my bruised human ego, but it just doesn't feel quite right to me.
I think this is precisely the thing about AI which makes it so interesting. An intelligence which is not a mere emulation of the human will be alien, and through its strangeness we can learn more both our limitations, as well as complement our own abilities.
It doesn't feel like it's a fair fight otherwise, since it means he's exploiting a weakness intrinsic to his competitors
Late in the first round you can see Jennings change his strategy a bit -- he starts ringing in before he knows the answer. Jennings is exploiting the fact that Watson won't ring in until it has confidence in an answer.
That's awesome. He can make that strategy pay off because he's Ken freaking Jennings. Usually the money penalty for buzzing in but answering incorrectly (or not at all) would dissuade a contestant from buzzing in before actually knowing the answer.
I wonder if the Watson developers did this because they were unable to simulate the benefit human players get by graduating through progressively difficult questions in a category.
I suspect the hopping categories was to try and buy time to calculate what sort of questions would be asked in each. But it's first move of getting into the lead (and the daily double) I would say is a combination of good strategy and PSYOP.
It looked like he went to the 4th row to find the daily double, then just went through all the cheapest questions, as he was most likely to answer those. He finished all of the $200s, then went to the $400s, etc. I don't think it was to trip up his opponents, I think it was to have a better chance at answering.
I've seen elsewhere it was suggested that whereas humans will want to get used to the question style of each category and learn from each one as they progress to harder answers, Watson has no such issues with jumping straight for high-value questions in all categories.
