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> But if that were the case, I'd expect that e.g. gasoline prices roughly follow the ups and downs of crude oil prices.

Why? Oil is an input for gasoline, no doubt, but it is also an input for wheat. If wheat diverges from the price of oil, nobody thinks twice. What's special about gasoline that requires that it follow the price of oil, despite being traded as a separate commodity?

There is a relationship between the price of oil and the price of gasoline, but not a direct one.



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